jwasserman@sacbee.com
In the next 25 years three things are certain about how we will live in Sacramento: This recession will be history. State government will get even bigger, serving 12 million more Californians. And home builders will fight hard to win buyers with gray hair.
A new draft population forecast for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments shows why. This is a region growing older as it grows bigger. One-fourth of today’s area population is 55 and older. In 2035, a third of the region’s 3.2 million people will be those older folks.
They’re the baby boomers marching into old age. And builders are eager to get their business. Home builders believe these elders, nearly a million of them, will buy a massive share of 267,000 new dwellings forecast for the six-county region by 2035.
“Everybody is already planning for it, or trying to get a piece of that pie,” said Dean Wehrli, a Sacramento-based executive for building industry consultant Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors.
Presently, a handful of Sacramento builders and developers – Pulte Homes, K. Hovnanian Homes and Eskaton – control the “adult” market. They’ve planted numerous age-restricted neighborhoods in Roseville, Natomas and Elk Grove. One Eskaton development in Roseville offers the whole spectrum: a single-family home and nearby assisted living when it becomes time.
These near-monopolies on neighborhoods with clubhouses, golf and arranged entertainment won’t last.
“If we have the same conversation in two years, it will be different,” Wehrli said.
The region’s 2035 projections from California economist Stephen Levy point builders toward the money. Levy forecasts 217,000 more people ages 75 or older than today. Same for people between 65 and 74: 195,000 more in 2035 than today. No other area age group comes close to growing that fast.
These are boomers still working. When they gather with friends, they ask each another about retirement. Are you staying here? Moving to some small town? And moving into what?
Pulte’s Del Webb subsidiary released a survey this week saying 30 percent of boomers want to move. The Carolinas are the top pick.
Wehrli thinks Sacramento builders will woo those who move here with small, familiar single-family detached homes that don’t have stairs.
“That will be the bread and butter,” he said.
Wehrli also believes other parts of California will send lots more retirees into the region. They’ll cash in their equity like thousands who filled Sun City Roseville and Sun City Lincoln Hills in the 1990s. They’ll come to be near grandchildren, and because “there just aren’t a lot of places to go and do this in the Bay Area.
“But Sacramento will also see urban product for these people,” he said, noting that planned downtown Sacramento high-rises that died in the housing crash had more older people on their waiting lists than expected.
Wherever boomers go, one more thing is certain about the next 25 years here. When people talk about a “gray area” they won’t mean nuance or confusion. They’ll mean Sacramento.





